Study: California’s flavored tobacco ban reduced menthol cigarette sales but led to rise of alternatives

RTI study finds statewide restriction cut menthol sales by 90%, yet cooling “non-menthol” products surged after the law took effect

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. — According to new research, California’s effort to curb flavored tobacco use has sharply reduced menthol cigarette sales but also led to a rise of alternative products that may be undermining the law’s intended impact. The study, led by researchers at RTI International, an independent scientific research institute, analyzed retail scanner data before and after the state’s flavored tobacco sales restriction took effect in December 2022.

The findings, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, reveal that menthol cigarette availability dropped by 44% and sales fell by 90% in the year following the ban. However, cigarettes labeled “non-menthol”—some designed to mimic menthol’s cooling sensation with synthetic additives—experienced a dramatic surge, with availability up 194% and sales skyrocketing by 708%.

“Our analysis shows the law was effective in reducing menthol cigarette sales, but the market adapted quickly,” said lead author Morgan Whitney, a public health analyst at RTI. “Stronger enforcement and clearer product definitions may be needed to ensure the law achieves its intended effect.”

The study used a synthetic control method to compare California’s trends with a modeled scenario representing what would have happened without the policy. While overall cigarette availability declined by 16% compared to the modeled scenario, total sales remained largely unchanged between the two scenarios due to the popularity of these new products.

California’s flavored tobacco restriction was designed to reduce initiation and support cessation, particularly among youth and communities disproportionately targeted by menthol marketing. Menthol cigarettes have long been associated with higher rates of addiction and lower quit success, especially among non-Hispanic Black individuals and young people, the authors note.

The study underscores the importance of monitoring industry responses to flavor bans and calls for enhanced retailer education and enforcement strategies. Researchers recommend tools such as approved product databases to help retailers comply and prevent the sale of products that skirt flavor restrictions, such as the recently published Unflavored Tobacco List, detailing tobacco products legally allowed to be sold in California.

Read the full study

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