Modeling the risk of salmonellosis from consumption of pistachios produced and consumed in the United States
The risk of salmonellosis from consumption of pistachios produced and consumed in the U.S. was assessed through quantitative microbial risk assessment. Data on Salmonella prevalence and concentration on pistachios, nut crop volume, storage times and temperatures during processing and handling, and reductions during storage or from roasting were derived from laboratory experiments, published literature, and industry expert opinion. Uncertainty was analyzed via what-if scenarios for Salmonella prevalence, concentration, storage reduction, treatment variability, portion of crop treated, and increased consumption. The estimated U.S. incidence of salmonellosis when 100% of pistachios were exposed to a 4 +/- 0 log reduction treatment averaged 1.4 cases per billion servings, or 0.05% of untreated product volume yield an arithmetic mean risk of >1 case/year. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.