An infectious disease model for estimating the incidence of HIV

Abstract

We present an infectious disease model with the following characteristics:
• Eight disjoint risk groups that are based
on transmission via sexual and intravenous
drug use in homosexual men, bisexual men,
heterosexual men and women.
• Contacts that follow from a homogeneous
mixing assumption which takes into account
risk group sizes and behavior.
• A disease incubation function based on the
results of Bachetti and Moss (1989).
• No infections associated with hemophiliacs,
blood product users, children under 13
years of age, and foreign borns.
Simulation experiments were conducted to
estimate critical model parameters such as the
number of sexual and/or needle sharing contacts
needed to explain observed AIDS cases and deaths
due to HlV-related illnesses. These estimated
parameters were used to make short-term national
projections of the incidence of HIV and AIDS.