Aim: Evaluations of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) treatments require predicting lifetime outcomes from short-term clinical trials. Materials & methods: A Markov model with NASH fibrosis stages F0-F3, NASH resolution, compensated cirrhosis (F4/CC), and liver-related complication (LRC) states was developed using literature-based standard of care (SoC) data. Hypothetical efficacy profiles were defined affecting resolution (100%-increase), fibrosis improvement (100% increase), or fibrosis worsening (50% decrease). Results: For the SoC, 10-year LRC rates increased with baseline fibrosis stage (F1: 3.0%; F2: 9.8%; F3: 27.2%; F4/CC: 64.9%). The fibrosis worsening profile reduced predicted 10-year LRC rates (F1: 1.9%; F2: 6.5%; F3: 19.1%; F4/CC: 55.0%) more than the resolution and fibrosis improvement profiles (F1: 2.6%/2.6%; F2: 8.5%/8.3%; F3: 23.3%/23.0%; F4/CC: NA/59.0%). Scenario analyses considered alternative SoC progression, treatment efficacy and treatment-stopping rules. Conclusion: Potential NASH efficacy profiles have differing impacts on predicted long-term outcomes, providing insights for future stakeholders.
