Estimating the potential health gain and cost consequences of introducing a pre-school DTPa pertussis booster into the UK child vaccination schedule

This work estimates the health and cost impacts of a pre-school booster vaccination for Bordetella pertussis, when added to existing UK primary vaccination. A transition state simulation model of pertussis infection in a closed population was constructed comprising of susceptible, infected and immune population sub-groups, across eight age bands. Epidemiological, service use and cost data were sourced from routine statistics, published literature and clinician estimates. The introduction of a pre-school booster is predicted to reduce the number of hospitalisations by approximately 1400 and pertussis cases suffered by up to 28,000 at a net investment of under £13 million over a 5-year period.