Baseline projections for Latin America: Base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions
van Ruijven, B. J., Daenzer, K., Fisher-Vanden, K., Kober, T., Paltsev, S., Beach, R., ... van Vuuren, D. P. (2016). Baseline projections for Latin America: Base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions. Energy Economics, 56, 499-512. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003
- Baseline energy and climate scenarios are modeled for Latin America.
- Differences in base year population, GDP, energy, emissions are due to data sources and using different actual base years.
- Projected growth of energy intensity is lower than historic growth of energy intensity.
- Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise by a factor of 1.5–2.5 by 2050.
- GDP and population growth and a shift in the energy mix from hydro to more fossil fuels drive emission increase.
This paper provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. We present the range in baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as a result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.