• Article

Validation and sensitivity of the FINE Bayesian network for forecasting aquatic exposure to nano-silver

The adaptive nature of the Forecasting the Impacts of Nanomaterials in the Environment (FINE) Bayesian network is explored. We create an updated FINE model (FINEAgNP-2) for predicting aquatic exposure concentrations of silver nanoparticles (AgNP) by combining the expert-based parameters from the baseline model established in previous work with literature data related to particle behavior, exposure, and nano-ecotoxicology via parameter learning. We validate the AgNP forecast from the updated model using mesocosm-scale field data and determine the sensitivity of several key variables to changes in environmental conditions, particle characteristics, and particle fate. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the FINEAgNP-2 model increased approximately 70% over the baseline model, with an error rate of only 20%, suggesting that FINE is a reliable tool to predict aquatic concentrations of nano-silver. Sensitivity analysis suggests that fractal dimension, particle diameter, conductivity, time, and particle fate have the most influence on aquatic exposure given the current knowledge; however, numerous knowledge gaps can be identified to suggest further research efforts that will reduce the uncertainty in subsequent exposure and risk forecasts

Citation

Money, E., Barton, L. E., Dawson, J., Reckhow, K. H., & Wiesner, M. R. (2014). Validation and sensitivity of the FINE Bayesian network for forecasting aquatic exposure to nano-silver. Science of the Total Environment, 473-474, 685-691. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.12.100