Market Assessment and Modeling
Our market assessment and modeling efforts contribute to key policy decisions regarding whether, how, when, and how much federal and state government agencies should support new technology research and development. We also assess the "going forward" effects of changes in existing policies that affect market potential and the rate of adoption. We contribute analyses in support of decisions regarding research and development, commercialization, and marketing strategy and tactics. For example, for the Department of Homeland Security, we are currently investigating market barriers to the adoption of efficient and effective cyber security technologies.
We have developed a large number of technology market models for our public and private sector clients to forecast the diffusion and market penetration of emerging technologies. These models are also used to assess economic potential and existing and emerging market barriers and failures by leveraging primary data, expert analyses, economic data, and economic theory.
Modeling Techniques
- Conjoint models
Estimate market potential and market shares for new technologies, products, and services - Naïve models
Make assessments as a function of historical data - Causal models
Make assessments as a function of causal coefficients - Logit models
Explain and predict choices based on market experience - Adoption process models
Predict the rate at which customers transition towards the ultimate adoption decision
Notable among the technologies and markets for which we have developed penetration and adoption models are communication protocols, laboratory test equipment, energy-efficient technologies, and several ISO standards.
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